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Here’s a plain-English version of the key points from Pascual Restrepo’s “We Won’t Be Missed: Work and Growth in the Era of AGI” slides.
What the paper says in everyday language
1. AGI will take over the most important jobs first
Not all work is equal. Some jobs are “bottlenecks” — meaning they’re the things holding back progress (like critical discoveries or tough design problems). Other jobs are “accessory” — supportive, but not essential for moving the whole system forward.
- AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) will first attack the bottlenecks, because that’s where it can add the most value.
- Humans may still do the accessory work, but mostly because it’s nice for other people to see a human touch, not because the economy depends on it.
2. Imagine “genius on demand”
Think of AGI like having a country full of super-smart experts who never get tired and don’t need paychecks. Whenever you need a tricky question answered, you just send it to them.
- Humans who are truly original thinkers may still matter, but most regular “knowledge workers” who apply existing ideas will be replaced first.
- In short: if you’re doing work that’s routine or based on well-known knowledge, AGI will do it cheaper and faster.
3. Wages will shrink, wealth shifts to whoever owns the AI
Because AGI can do critical work, wages for most people won’t grow much anymore. In the extreme, labor’s share of income could shrink toward zero.
- The big winners are those who own the compute power and AI systems.
- Everyone else risks being left behind unless society finds a way to share the gains.
4. The change won’t be gradual — it will be choppy
When AGI gets good enough at a new kind of task, the value of human workers in that field can collapse suddenly.
- Think of it like: one day, being a translator is a good career; the next, a translation AI makes it almost worthless.
- These sudden flips will cause instability in wages and jobs.
5. The new job of humans (and managers): routing questions
One of the biggest challenges will be deciding which questions to give to AI and which to keep for humans.
- Routine and codified tasks → hand them to AGI.
- Open-ended, novel, or trust-based tasks → keep them with humans.
- Over time, AGI also lets us ask brand-new questions we couldn’t even attempt before.
6. Policy and ownership will shape the future
Because wealth and growth will pool around AI systems and the data centers that run them, society needs to make choices:
- Should governments or communities own part of this infrastructure?
- Should we provide a basic income or dividends so people share in the wealth, even if they don’t work traditional jobs?
- Should we steer AGI early toward scientific research that benefits everyone?
What this means for you and me
- For workers: Focus on skills that AGI can’t easily copy — originality, judgment, taste, emotional connection, and trust.
- For companies: Redesign workflows so AI does the repetitive stuff and humans handle what’s new or deeply human.
- For society: Prepare for a world where wages aren’t tied to growth — we’ll need new systems of income and new ways to find meaning when traditional work is less central.
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